This discussion paper examines how climate change interacts with Africa’s agricultural transformation, drawing on data and analyses from Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi, and Tanzania. It highlights that while Africa’s agriculture is undergoing shifts toward market orientation, commercialization, and productivity growth, climate risks—including rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, droughts, and floods—pose significant threats to crops, livestock, and livelihoods.
The report identifies three major pathways through which climate change affects transformation: (1) reduced agricultural productivity and increased variability, (2) heightened vulnerability among smallholders, and (3) disruptions to value chains, infrastructure, and markets. Graphics in the report—such as rainfall deviation charts on page 14 and crop-yield simulation figures on page 17—illustrate projected declines in maize, sorghum, and other staples.
It stresses the need for climate-smart agriculture (CSA), improved irrigation, resilient seed systems, early-warning systems, diversified livelihoods, and stronger policy frameworks aligned with national climate commitments. Country case studies show uneven adoption of CSA practices due to constraints in finance, extension services, and institutional capacity.
The authors conclude that successful agricultural transformation in Africa requires embedding climate resilience into every stage of the food system—from production technologies to market infrastructure and governance systems—so that climate shocks do not reverse development gains.
Resource type:
Reports and discussion papers