Extreme weather events and large-scale conflicts disrupt global food systems, driving volatility in food prices and deepening food insecurity—particularly in developing countries. Between 2014 and 2021, the share of the population experiencing moderate or severe food insecurity rose by 10 percentage points. The impact of geopolitical shocks is stark: following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, global prices surged by 37% for maize and 69% for wheat.
Such external shocks are difficult to predict and even harder to prevent, leaving low-income households especially vulnerable. This paper explores how biofuel and trade policies can be leveraged to cushion domestic markets against global price fluctuations. Using simulations from the OECD-FAO Aglink-Cosimo model, the findings suggest that reducing biofuel feedstock use by 20% could dampen price spikes from extreme weather events by 53–67%, while a 50% reduction could fully offset increases in maize and wheat prices.
The analysis highlights the potential of coordinated, multilateral action to reposition biofuel systems as strategic reserves—capable of releasing feedstocks during periods of scarcity and contributing to global food security.